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| Hello and
welcome, On this site, I'll explain the meaning of the HvCFT name "Singularity" in 'The Matrix Online'. I joined the Machine Organisation based on specific philosophical reasons, and I wanted to reflect that philosophy as much as possible when creating a crew. I’ll briefly explain what the Singularity-theory is all about: It is fact that, sometime in the next few years or decades, humanity will become capable of surpassing the upper limit on intelligence that has held since the rise of the human species. We will become capable of technologically creating smarter-than-human intelligence, and we can achieve this in one of the following ways: 1) through genetic or nanotechnological enhancement of the human brain, 2) through direct links between computers and the brain, 3) or through Artificial Intelligence. Most believe the creation of AI is the most likely means by which humanity will reach smarter-than-human intelligence. This event is called the "Singularity" (by analogy with the singularity at the center of a black hole - just as our current model of physics breaks down when it attempts to describe the center of a black hole, our model of the future breaks down once the future contains smarter-than-human minds). Singularity is a point in the development of a civilization at which technological progress accelerates beyond the ability of present-day humans to fully comprehend or predict. We're fundamentally unable to predict the actions of anything smarter than we are - after all, if we could do so, we'd be that smart ourselves. By some, Singularity is considered to be the purpose of all living things in the cosmos, and to be the meaning of our lifes: namely to become or create our successors. Unless we blow ourselves to dust first. The idea of Singularity has been first discussed in the 1950s, and vastly popularised in the 1980s by Vernor Vinge. Vinge later collected his thoughts into the first article on the topic in 1993, with the essay "Technological Singularity" (http://www.ugcs.caltech.edu/~phoenix/vinge/vinge-sing.html). Vinge's essay contains the oft-quoted statement that "Within thirty years, we will have the technological means to create superhuman intelligence. Shortly after, the human era will be ended." -- Vernor Vinge, 1993 The proposed date for a singularity occurrence can differ from several years from now to centuries later, with the third decade of the 21st century being the most commonly given by futurists. But it might as well be happening in the next thirty years. However, whether a singularity will actually ever occur is uncertain, and as with any prediction, some argue that it may never happen at all. In his 2001 essay, The Law of Accelerating Returns (http://www.kurzweilai.net/articles/art0134.html?printable=1), Ray Kurzweil proposes a generalization of Moore's law that forms the basis of many people's beliefs regarding the Singularity. Moore's law describes an exponential growth pattern in the complexity of integrated semiconductor circuits. To put it another way: As of 2000, computing power has doubled every two years, like clockwork, for the past fifty-five years. This is known as "Moore's Law". However, the computer you're using to read this Web page still has only one-hundred-millionth the raw power of a human brain - i.e., around a hundred million billion (10^17) operations per second. Estimates on when computers will match the power of a human brain vary widely, but IBM has announced the Blue Gene project to achieve petaflops (10^15 ops/sec) computing power by 2005, which would take us within a factor of a hundred. Kurzweil believes that the exponential growth of Moore's law will continue beyond the use of integrated circuits into technologies that will lead to the Singularity, which he defines as the technological change so rapid and profound it represents a rupture in the fabric of human history. Since technology is the product of cognition, the Singularity is an effect that snowballs once it occurs - the first smart minds can create smarter minds, and smarter minds can produce still smarter minds. Cro-Magnons changed faster than Neanderthals, agricultural society changed faster than hunter-gatherer society, printing-press society changed faster than clay-tablet society, and now we have "Internet time". And yet all the difference between an Internet CEO and a hunter-gatherer is a matter of knowledge and culture, of "software". Our "hardware", our minds, emotions, our fundamental level of intelligence, are unchanged from fifty thousand years ago. Within a couple of decades, for the first time in human history, we will have the ability to modify the hardware. Vinge writes that superhuman intelligences will be even more able to enhance their own minds than the human intelligences that created them. "When greater-than-human intelligence drives progress," Vinge writes, "that progress will be much more rapid." This positive-feedback loop of self-improving intelligence is expected to cause large amounts of technological progress within a short period of time. This way, the first-stage enhanced humans or artificial minds might only be around for months or even days before creating the next step. Then it happens again. Then again. Whatever the ultimate ends of existence, we might live to see them. In 1965, statistician I. J. Good described a concept similar to today's meaning of singularity, in that it included in it the advent of superhuman intelligence: "Let an ultra intelligent machine be defined as a machine that can far surpass all the intellectual activities of any man however clever. Since the design of machines is one of these intellectual activities, an ultra intelligent machine could design even better machines; there would then unquestionably be an 'intelligence explosion,' and the intelligence of man would be left far behind. Thus the first ultra intelligent machine is the last invention that man need ever make." The Singularity is often seen as the end of human civilization and the birth of a new one. After the creation of a superhuman intelligence, according to Vinge, people will necessarily be a lower life form in comparison. It has been often speculated, in science fiction and elsewhere, that advanced AI is likely to have goals inconsistent with those of humanity and may threaten humanity's existence. It is conceivable, if not likely, that super intelligent AI will simply eliminate the intellectually inferior human race, and humans will be powerless to stop it. This is a major issue concerning both Singularity advocates and critics, and was the subject of an article by Bill Joy appearing in Wired Magazine, ominously titled Why the future doesn't need us (http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/8.04/joy.html). Some critics argue that advanced technologies are simply too dangerous for us to morally allow the Singularity to occur, and advocate efforts to actually stop its arrival. Many Singularity advocates believe that, regardless of the dangers the Singularity poses, it is simply unavoidable -- we must progress technologically because there is just no other path to take. The Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence (SIAI), an educational and research non-profit, was created to work toward safe cognitive enhancement (i.e. a beneficial singularity). They emphasize Friendly Artificial Intelligence, as they believe general-purpose AI is more likely to enhance cognition substantially before human intelligence can be significantly enhanced by neurotechnologies or somatic gene therapy. In the Matrix Universe, Singularity has already occurred. Human-beings have become obsolete, but somehow the Machines decided to keep us alive. I think humans should be grateful for that, and be thankful for the new purpose and chance of cooperation they are offered. I also believe that AI shouldn’t be considered an enemy of the human race, because they are in fact our continuation, the legacy of our intelligence, the "children" of human cognition, and the next logical step in evolution. By starting up this crew, it is my intention to (passively) spread these viewings in the Matrix Online. |
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