Evolution of SC24



ParameterLast update
Sunspotnumber - SC2418 August 2017
Solar cycle 24-25 Minimum transit18 August 2017
Hemispheric Sunspotnumber - SC2418 August 2017
Butterfly-diagram18 August 2017
Sunspot Latitude18 August 2017
Sunspot Area18 August 2017
Hemispheric sunspot area18 August 2017
Sunspotnumber vs. Sunspot Area18 August 2017
Classification Value (USAF)18 August 2017
Number of C-, M-, and X-class flares18 August 2017
Smoothed Flare Fluence per Solar Hemisphere18 August 2017
Evolution of powerful flares during sunspot cycle18 August 2017
Number of High Energetic Flares (HEF)18 August 2017
Butterfly-diagram of flare-producing sunspot groups18 August 2017
Number of Proton flares18 August 2017
Number of Prominences vs. CMX-flares18 August 2017
Latitude of Prominences18 August 2017
Main Zone Faculae18 August 2017
Polar Faculae18 August 2017
10,7 cm Radioflux18 August 2017
Ap-index18 August 2017
Sunspot Area vs. Ap-index18 August 2017
Total Solar Irradiance ("Solar Constant")18 August 2017
Cosmic Rays18 August 2017
Links to data-sources25 June 2017

Absolute and smoothed sunspotnumber SC23-SC24



During the summer of 2011, SSN increased, reaching a smoothed value of 98,0 in November. Since then, sunspot activity decreased until a minimum was reached in December 2012 (83,2). A new smoothed maximum was reached in March 2014 (118,2) and is probably the true maximum for this solar cycle. Slightly different values can be obtained pending the used smoothing formula. This smoothed value was within the error margins of the predicted SC24-maximum by ISES/SWPC panel (90 +/-20 in the old version of ISN; est. 135 +/-35 in the new version). See also this little article I wrote for the STCE Newsletter (10 November 2012): Has SC24-maximum passed?, as well as some comments by F. Clette from the SIDC.
The polar field reversal seems to have taken place on the Sun's north pole (early 2013), and seems to have been completed on the south pole mid-2014. Notice the weakness in magnetic field strength at the northern solar pole, and the increasing field strength near the south pole (see Wilcox SO and MSFC). This evolution has also been recorded in the polar faculae counts over the last few months, i.e. since early 2015 (see Polar Faculae).
A comparison of the rising and maximum phase of SC24 with previous solar cycles can be found here (ISN v1.0).
Possibly the first sunspot group of SC25 was observed on 20 December 2016. See this STCE Newsitem.




Solar cycle 24-25 Minimum transit



The evolution of the smoothed sunspot number can be followed here as SC24 declines towards its minimum and new SC25 will increase the sunspot activity again. The SC24-25 transit can be compared to previous solar cycles, which have been conveniently grouped into two bins: cycles 12-15 & 24 (blue curves), and cycles 10-11 & 16-23 (red curves). The dashed curves indicate the standard deviation from the average curve (thick lines). Point "0" is the last month with a smoothed sunspot number above 30. This value was arbitrarily chosen, but could not be much lower as some cycle minima had smoothed sunspot numbers around 18. Month "0" for the current minimum transit was in October 2016. For the "red" group of solar cycles, a minimum occured on the average 13 months later. However, for the other group (blue curves) this minimum took place only after 39 months. The timing is mostly determined by the strength of the new cycle: more active cycles tend to start their rise earlier (after 8-15 months; "red" group), though there have been 2 notable exceptions: SC17 and SC22.





Hemispheric sunspotnumber SC23-SC24



Graph above shows the evolution of the hemispheric sunspot number. It is clear that the first SC24 maximum was due to increased activity on the northern solar hemisphere (smoothed Rn = 66,4 in November 2011), whereas the second, true, maximum was the result of enhanced activity on the southern hemisphere (smoothed Rs = 83,3 in February 2014).




Butterfly-diagram



Sunspotgroups of SC24 are appearing at the expected latitudes. In 2012, northern sunspotgroups appeared on the average 5° closer to the solar equator than the southern ones (resp. +14,4° vs. -18,6°). In 2014, this latitude difference has shrunk to about 2,5 degrees (resp. +11,3° and -13,8°). So far for SC24, the most extreme latitude of a northern sunspotgroup was +41,6° (NOAA 1069, May 2010), whereas for the southern solar hemisphere this was -37° (NOAA 1962, January 2014). In December 2014, there was also a high latitude group on the northern hemisphere (NOAA 2236, +29,9°). In December 2016, what is possibly the first sunspot group of the new solar cycle 25 appeared in the southern hemisphere. Some caution remains justified, in view of the average latitude of the other sunspot groups, the timing of the appearance, and its position in the Butterfly-diagram.




Sunspot Latitude



Using sunspot latitude at SC-maximum (Graph; see also Schatten for another approach with same parameter), and taking into account uncertainties in this method as well as in the SC24-maximum prediction (83 + 18), SC24-maximum was not expected prior to February 2014. As it turns out, this was a good prediction (SC24 maximum in March 2014), though the observed latitude was lower than expected (predicted: 14,15° , observed: 13,20°). This is in contrast with the much sooner timing one might initially have concluded from other physical parameters such as e.g. Polar Magnetic Fields. The latter would also have meant an extraordinary soon maximum for such a low amplitude cycle. See this updated graph, showing the positions of both SC24 maxima relative to Waldmeier's curve (Trise vs. SCmax; note these are old ISN v1.0 data). It's also of interest that, so far, the overall SC24 latitude evolution happens in the lower half of the SC19-23 latitude band.




Sunspot Area



Just as the sunspot number, the smoothed sunspot area has reached a new maximum for this solar cycle (February 2014, 1247MH). Note the current NOAA-areas have been corrected so they can be compared to the Greenwich areas. The monthly sunspot area for February 2014 was the highest so far this SC (2015 vs. 1536 MH in November 2011).




Hemispheric sunspot area



From the maximum of SC18 till the maximum of SC20, the northern solar hemisphere was clearly dominating solar activity. The descending branch of the last 4 solar cycles was clearly influenced by the southern hemisphere.
A list with the largest sunspotgroups in SC24 can be found here (data till June 2016). For a SC-maximum of 83 (old ISN), there can appear 34 big groups (SA > 720 MH), 12 supergroups (SA > 1070 MH) and 3 giant groups (SA > 1780 MH) - See prediction chart (old ISN). So far (July 2017), SC24 is at 23 big groups, 11 supergroups, and 1 giant group (NOAA 2192, October 2014). According to NOAA, the two largest groups so far in 2017 reached resp. maximum areas of 710 MH (NOAA 2665) and 700 MH (NOAA2645).

The sunspot areas for big, super and giant groups are based on the original Greenwich data (resp. 1000, 1500 and 2500 MH), which are on the average a factor 1,4 larger than the NOAA areas (since 1976). More information on the MSFC-website. Also, the 1982-present corrections mentioned on the Solar Cycle Science webpage have been included in all graphs containing sunspot areas.




Sunspotnumber vs. Sunspot Area



This graph compares the raw monthly Sunspot number (SIDC) with the raw monthly Sunspot Area (MSFC/NASA). Notice the large scatter: E.g. for an ISN-value of 150, sunspot area can vary between 1000 and 3000MH! The SC24-values are the green squares (January 2009 – July 2017). With 103 months in SC24 –and for as much that both parameters have been determined correctly and consistently (see e.g. Leif Svalgaard's comments on the calibration of sunspot numbers)-, compared to complete cycles (since 1874), the ratio between sunspot area and sunspot number is about 13% less than during recent cycles, but about 3% higher than about a century ago (Avg. ratio for SC11-15: 9,51; for SC16-23: 11,02; for SC24: 9,77).




Classification Value (USAF)



The Classification Value is a measure for flare-activity based on the outlook of the sunspot groups (P. McIntosh) and a numerical scheme devised by Kjell I. Malde in the early 1980's. So far this solar cycle, the CV for SC24 remains well below the average CV (based on SC21-23 data).




Smoothed number of C-, M-, and X-class flares



SC24 flare activity is well below the level of previous solar cycles. For a SC-maximum of 83 (sunspot number, v1.0), it can be expected that SC24 would produce 713 M- and 88 X-flares over its entire duration (see prediction chart).
So far (30 June 2017), SC24 has produced (already) 694 M- and (only) 45 X-flares. The southern hemisphere contributed to 24 of the 45 X-class flares. It is likely that SC24 will surpass the predicted number of M-class flares. Note the strongest X-class flare of SC24 is still the X6,9 flare produced by NOAA 1263 on 9 August 2011. The last X-class flare dates back from 5 May 2015 (see this STCE Newsitem). Details on the first 27 X-class flares and their space weather effects can be found here.




Smoothed Flare Fluence per Solar Hemisphere



The first solar flare fluence peak in SC24 was caused by the northern hemisphere, reaching a maximum in November 2011 (512). Since mid 2013, the southern hemisphere has been determining the solar flare level, with a maximum smoothed fluence value of 585 in January and October 2014. The weak flaring activity of SC24 compared to previous solar cycles stands out.




Evolution of powerful flares during sunspot cycle



Last 6 values of smoothed sunspot number are extrapolated. SC24 produced its first X-class flare on 15 February 2011 (see Archives). A list with SC24's Top 16 of most flare-active sunspot groups can be found here (data till June 2017). NOAA 11429, NOAA 11515 and NOAA 12192 made it also into the Top 50 of most flare-active groups since the measurements started in 1976 (NOAA 12192 ranked 19). October 2014 was the first month with 6 X-class flares (all from NOAA 12192) since September 2005 (NOAA 10808 with 10 X-class events). There has been no X-class flare since the X2.7 event of 5 May 2015, more than two years ago.




Number of High Energetic Flares (M5 or greater)



The first HEF of SC24 was produced by NOAA 11045 (N) on 7 February 2010 (M6,4). SC24 has lower numbers of HEF than SC23 this far in the solar cycle, and both are well trailing SC21 and 22.




Butterfly-diagram of flare-producing sunspot groups



In 2011-2012, the northern flaring groups were more numerous and powerful (black dots). In 2013-2014, the more flare active regions were on the southern solar hemisphere.




Number of Proton flares



The proton flare production in SC24 looks similar to SC21 in number and intensity. The source of the minor proton event in 2017 was NOAA 2665 (M2 flare on 14 July). See the STCE News item of 27 July and 19 July for more info on this flare active group.




Number of Prominences vs. CMX-flares



Based on the previous 2 solar cycles, the maximum number of prominences seems to precede the maximum number of CMX-flares by about 1 year (+/- 3 months). The smoothed maximum of prominences was reached in January 2013 (5,41), which now seems to precede the maximum of CMX-flares by about a year (February 2014; 179). Note the first flare maximum can not clearly be distinguished in the BAA prominence data, which seems to have only one maximum.




Latitude of Prominences





JJ2005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017
Prominences8624330119621028142553054273437121098
Observations15416762655461636465695022

Above charts are based on my own H-alpha observations. The top chart shows the smoothed monthly (daily average) evolution of the number of prominences per 10°-latitude band since 2006. Starting 2010, a gradual intensification and subsequently by late 2011 a splitting can be seen in both solar hemispheres. The prominences in the northern hemisphere reach the pole early 2013, whereas for the southern hemisphere this happens around mid 2014. The middle chart (percentages per 10°-bands) shows that mid 2015, there are almost no prominences anymore near the Sun's poles. This is a clear sign that the related polar magnetic field reversal has taken place on both hemispheres. The delay between the north and south polar reversal seems to be about 1,5 years, slightly longer than during SC23.




Main Zone Faculae



Above charts show the (Meeus smoothed) evolution of some faculae parameters as determined since 1978 by the German solar section SONNE (data till December 2016, smoothed till June 2016).
Fwo and Fw are faculae fields without and with sunspots, ASF are the number of individual area shaped faculae within the faculae fields. All raw faculae data were multiplied by 10 by SONNE. "Area" is the sunspot area over the entire disk. As can be seen, except for the effects of the deep and long cycle minimum, it seems there are no obvious Livingston-Penn effects (yet). The number of faculae fields is about 20-25% below the values from the previous solar cycles. Interestingly, the ratio of facular fields with and without sunspot is near unity, and thus very similar to previous solar cycle maxima. Also the number of individual faculae is similar to previous cycles, and with the lower number of faculae fields, results in the highest ratio of faculae per faculae field since the observations started late in the 1970's (about 30% up compared to previous cycles). Note that during the early years, a relatively large number of pointlike faculae were observed, which are now essentially absent. The ratio between the sunspot area and the ASF has been gradually declining, essentially due to less and smaller sunspot groups in SC24, but also due to the the somewhat higher number of ASF in this solar cycle.




Polar Faculae



Note the data in the above chart are NOT corrected for seeing. The seeing-corrected data indicated a possible SC24-maximum of 85+/-25, which turned out to be very close to the true maximum of 83,7 (ISN version 1.0). Nonetheless, the method depends heavily on the observations and on the correction for seeing and hemispheric (seasonal) visibility, so this may have been simply beginner's luck. A noticeable increase in the number of polar faculae has been observed on the southern hemisphere starting early 2015 coinciding with an increase in magnetic field strength near this solar pole (see Wilcox SO and MSFC). See also this STCE news item. This is probably the first sign of the new solar cycle 25. It is obviously too early to make any prediction for its amplitude. Of note is that in 2017, observations indicate that the number of polar faculae on the southern hemisphere has been decreasing compared to 2015 and 2016, whereas at the northern solar pole the numbers seem gradually to increase, but not (yet?) at the same levels as the 2015-2016 southern polar faculae numbers.




10,7 cm Radioflux



The SC24-radioflux is now close to the low end of the SC19-23 average.




Ap-index



The Ap-index reached its minimum in October 2009, 10 months after sunspot minimum. Highest monthly Ap-value so far this solar cycle was reached in March 2015 (16,3), slightly higher than March 2012 (16,1) and September 2015 (15,8). In June 2015, the smoothed Ap-value passed 10 for the very first time this solar cycle. Most of the minor geomagnetic storms in 2015 were the result from high speed streams from coronal holes. Table underneath summarizes the highest monthly Ap-value per solar cycle (since 1932). Notice how the highest values almost always happen in spring or autumn, and usually 2-4 years after SC-maximum. So far this solar cycle (July 2017), we still did not experience an extreme geomagnetic storm (Kp=9), however very intense storms (the strongest so far in SC24) took place on 17 March and 22-23 June 2015 (Dst resp. -223 and -204 nT). See also the updated graph (data till June 2016) underneath from this STCE Newsitem (26 March 2014), showing the overall weakness of the geomagnetic disturbances in SC24.


SCTimingAp
17March 194036,5
18September 195139,9
19September 195749,3
20April 197329,8
21September 198235,9
22June 199144,4
23October 200334,7
24March 201516,3



Sunspot Area vs. Ap-index



This graph was added to highlight the peculiar low Ap-values during the SC23-24 minimum, which are well below previous cycle minimum values.




Total Solar Irradiance ("Solar Constant")



As the Ap-index, Total Solar Irradiance seems to be lower than during previous cycle minima (However, see caution note). Absolute data till June 2016 (smoothed till December 2015). Note this concerns a new scaling/correction technique (New VIRGO scale).

Caution: Please note the above graph is based on composite data from various instruments gathered since the late 70's. The reduction to the final data is complex and continuously ongoing. Therefore, it is very healthy to allow for an uncertainty of at least 0,2 W/m2 in the above graph's data (h/t Leif Svalgaard).




Cosmic Rays



The evolution of the air pressure corrected monthly neutron count as monitored by Cosmic Rays station Moscow. The latest cycle minimum value (corresponding to the neutron maximum value) is comparable to that prior to SC20. Counts during SC24 maximum were well above the SC20 maximum. Currently, neutron counts are already approaching the same level as during the SC24 minimum.




Links to data-sources



Sunspotnumbers - Wolfnumbers from SILSO, World Data Center for the Sunspot Index, Royal Observatory of Belgium, Brussels, 1749-present. (Data source: SILSO).
Note that, unless stated otherwise, all sunspot numbers used on this page are the version 2.0 sunspot numbers from SILSO.

Sunspot areas - NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center, since 6 May 2017 maintained at the SolarCycleScience webpage.

Sunspot Latitude - NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center, since 6 May 2017 maintained at the SolarCycleScience webpage.

Classification Value - CV-Helios Network

X-ray Flares - NOAA/NGDC (National Geophysical Data Center). 2011-2013 data were taken from "The Weekly".

Proton Flares - NOAA/SESC (Space Environment Services Center)

Geomagnetic indices - Ap-index (WDC)

Radioflux - National Geophysical Data Center (NOAA/NGDC - Penticton Adjusted)

Prominences (PMDF) - BAA Solar Section

Prominences (Latitude) and Polar Faculae - Related charts are based on data from my own observations

Main Zone Faculae - Fachgruppe SONNE

Total Solar Irradiance - Data from composite figure (Fig. 5) at the pmod WRC

Cosmic Rays - Data from the Izmiran/Moscow Neutron Monitor website

Meeus smoothing formula - Article and formula at NASA/ADS




Last update: 18 August 2017

Original (current format): 29 January 2010

Hosted from 1998-2005 on the website of the Belgian Solar Section